Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-03-09T01:06:02

Electron flux is at mostly high levels due to recent inputs from the coronal hole high speed stream. This is likely to remain above the high threshold through much of the period. There is also a risk of an increase in electron flux as the radiation belt is currently thought to be more significantly charged below GEO. As the high speed stream from coronal hole 81 continues to ease and the radiation belt relaxes and expands, the electron populations at lower orbits could enhance the GEO electron counts, although the potential connection of coronal hole 83 today or tomorrow could inhibit this relaxation.

Electron fluence is expected to remain above the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold, with a very slight risk of exceeding the Very Active threshold, with an initially rising or level trend followed by a possible slow downward trend later in the period. In contrast MOSWOC REFM is forecasting a rapidly declining trend in the fluence through today, quickly falling below the Active threshold, which is not accepted.