Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-03-08T00:12:12

Electron flux is at mostly high levels due to recent inputs from the coronal hole high speed stream. This is likely to remain above the high threshold through much of the period. However, any geomagnetic activity from a potential CME glancing blow or the onset of CH82 could reduce electron flux levels, but these are a low likelihood. There is also a risk of an increase in electron flux as the radiation belt is currently thought to be more significantly charged below GEO. As the high speed stream from coronal hole 81 eases and the radiation belt relaxes and expands, the electron populations at lower orbits could enhance the GEO electron counts, although the potential connection of coronal hole 82 on Days 1 or 2 (08-09 Mar) could inhibit this relaxation.

Electron fluence is expected to remain above the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold, with a very slight risk of exceeding the Very Active threshold, although with a possible slow downward trend later in the period. MOSWOC REFM is forecasting an above Active trend through the coming three days, which seems reasonable.