Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-03-06T00:17:06

Electron flux is currently at high levels after recent HSS effects. It is likely to stay this way through much of the period, although perhaps becoming suppressed should we see any CME glancing blows at Earth in the coming days. Any CME arrival is low confidence, however, lending uncertainty to the electron forecast. The recent fairly prolonged period of fast winds is likely to have significantly charged the radiation belt, which is probably still compressed by the current HSS. As this wanes, electron flux levels have the potential to rise sharply as the radiation belt de-compresses and expands back to fully encompass GEO. 

Electron fluence is currently above the Active threshold (1e8 integrated flux), which is in good agreement with the REFM forecast. Fluence is expected to remain above the Active threshold throughout much of the period, although the potential for CME glancing blows could drop it below, but this is lower confidence. As mentioned above, there is also the possibility of a rise in fluence levels in the coming days, should significant additional charging have occurred which may reach GEO as the radiation belt de-compresses.