Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-03-03T12:40:37

The recent resurgence in the solar wind speed and arrival of Active geomagnetic activity has greatly reduced the flux at GOES16 - falling from High flux to Normal Background. This may be the vanguard of the main CH81/- fast wind, with this tentatively maintained as a most likely arrival in day three, Sunday 05 March, although now with reduced confidence.

Much of this period should therefore be characterised by Unsettled or Active geomagnetic activity, which ought to continue to suppress electron counts at GEO, however a strong rebound is likely into the new working week, perhaps beginning as early as day four, Monday 06 March to give a peak Chance of Active 24-hour integrated fluence for the period. 

MOSWOC REFM now shows a suppressed forecast for the next 72 hours, which is accepted, although its range falls short of the more speculative increase due around day four.