Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-03-02T12:22:22

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is at high levels and is expected to remain similar at first. It seems likely that significant charging has occurred in the radiation belt which is probably still compressed below GEO by the HSS. As the HSS eases through the next 24 hours, a further increase in flux levels is possible in the short term. A decline is then possible later in the period, due to the effects of a further high speed stream and associated increased geomagnetic activity. We may start to see a return to high levels at the very end of the period, but more likely after the end of this period.

Electron fluence values are expected to remain above the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) level at first, perhaps rising further in the near term, before declining later in the period due to the forecast high speed stream onset. MOSWOC REFM is suggesting a gradual decline below Active, which is not unreasonable, although confidence is only moderate in the timing of this.