Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-03-01T12:20:22

The recent CMEs and high speed stream are likely to have loaded the radiation belts with electrons. Initially these will have been displaced from the GEO orbit by the strong solar wind and increased geomagnetic activity. As the speed and activity eases, the electron flux has increased above the high threshold. The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to be at largely high levels through the next couple of days, before a likely reducing trend later in the period.

Electron fluence values are forecast to increase with an expectation of exceeding the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold during Day 1 (1st Mar), and likely remaining at Active levels until later in the period. This trend is supported by latest REFM data.