Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-02-28T13:29:55

The recent CMEs and high speed stream are likely to have loaded the radiation belts with electrons. Initially these will have been displaced from the GEO orbit by the strong solar wind and increased geomagnetic activity. As the speed and activity eases, the electron flux is likely to increase sharply to above the high threshold. The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to start at mainly moderate to high levels through the next four days, but reaching persistently high levels on diurnal maximum later in the period 

Electron fluence values are forecast to reflect this increase with a likelihood of exceeding the active (1e8 integrated pfu) later in the period.