MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-02-27T13:30:43
High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) observed at GOES16 has varied between moderate and background levels. This is likely due to the radiation belts being suppressed by a combination of elevated geomagnetic activity and strong solar wind speeds distorting the radiation belts. Speeds and geomagnetic activity are forecast to decrease later in the period, with a risk of a rise in the electron counts towards the end of the period.
Electron fluence is expected to persist well below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) level for much of the period, with any rise towards the threshold more likely on 01 or 02 Mar. However based on the uncertainty in the timing and effects of possible CME arrivals, the risks are relatively low at this stage.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2023-02-27T13:30:43 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 30% | 1% |