Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-02-26T13:19:37

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) observed at GOES16 has returned back to background levels after spending much of the past 24 hours at Moderate levels, due to recent coronal hole enhancements. Coronal hole fast winds and CMEs through the end of Feb will likely combine to suppress observed flux at GEO, though perhaps increasing the electron content of the Van Allen belts which will be compressed into lower orbits. As elevated winds decline later in the period, these may begin to recover, with flux increasing to Moderate, and perhaps High (above 1000 pfu) by days 3 and 4 (28 Feb or 01 Mar). 

The associated 24 hour fluence is consequently expected to persist at background days for much of the period, with an increasing chance of reaching Active levels toward the end of Feb due or early Mar to the uncertainty of CME arrivals. REFM is currently giving good guidance through the period with a mostly flat trend.