Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-02-25T13:26:57

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) observed at GOES16 is currently Moderate after recent coronal hole enhancements, and unlikely to rise significantly day 1 or day 2 (25th or 26th) before the next significant arrival on day 2. This will likely be the CIR region ahead of negative polarity CH79, and then followed later on the 26th or early 27th by the expected CME arrival.  These will combine to suppress observed flux at GEO, but likely increasing the electron content of the Van Allen belts which will be compressed into lower orbits. As elevated winds decline day 3 these will likely return outwards, increasing with flux increasing to Moderate, and likely to High (above 1000 pfu) by day 4 (28th). 

The associated 24 hour fluence is consequently expected to persist at background days 1 and 2 (25th and 26th), but likely rising later in the period to give a chance of reaching Active day 4 (28th). REFM is currently giving good guidance up until any fast wind or CME arrival occurs on day 2 and day 3, as these will not be featured within the model.