Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-02-24T12:16:41

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) observed at GOES16 is at mostly background to moderate levels due to the influence of CH77. Further HSS influence is likely through much of this period, perhaps with a more significant HSS from CH79 arriving on Day 3 (26 Feb). Electron charging is likely to occur from the various faster winds, however any geomagnetic activity may temporarily suppress flux levels. In addition, faster wind speeds at times, especially later in the period, may compress the radiation belt inside GEO with GOES16 perhaps not measuring the most charged part of the belt. As a consequence, confidence is low in this forecast.

The associated 24-hour fluence is likely to show an erratic rising trend. There is a possibility of exceeding the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold through this period, but with a more significant response becoming more likely after the end of this period. MOSWOC REFM is suggesting a rise to near Active, which is probably reasonable, although with significant uncertainty in the timing and intensity of any further rise.