Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-02-23T00:36:57

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) observed at GOES16 is now at mostly background levels. There may now be some influence in the solar wind from CH77, although it is minor, with STEREO suggesting this is likely to decline within the next 24 hours. As such, significant electron charging from this feature is considered unlikely. It is possible that a more significant HSS from CH78 may arrive on Day 3, with the timing low confidence. This may give more significant charging, but with any effects unlikely to be felt until the end of the period. This is a non-persistent feature, so recurrence is not a helpful forecasting guide here. There is the possibility of a couple of glancing CME blows on Day 1 and Day 3, but these are more likely to miss Earth.

The associated fluence is expected to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold for much of the period, perhaps rising on Day 4 (26 Feb), with a slight chance of exceeding Active. MOSWOC REFM keeps a below Active trend for the next three days, which seems reasonable. With CH78 a non-persistent feature, REFM won't be taking account of this until any HSS arrives.