Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-02-21T12:43:17

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) observed at GOES16 is currently showing a very slight day-on-day increase to oscillate between Moderate and Normal Background levels.

Any more persistent increase in flux is now likely to be suppressed by geomagnetic activity arising from the fading 17 February CME at Earth. In terms of the forecast, there are now some signals that something resembling CH77 may have arrived at STEREO A (a day upwind in the Parker spiral), although the speed trace is erratic and has yet to settle, which makes gauging the intensity of CH77 difficult. It is still therefore considered relatively unlikely that CH77 should prove capable of Active electron fluence later this working week (UTC).

With remaining transients now low confidence for affecting Earth at all, and with CH77 a persistent feature, confidence in MOSWOC REFM output is increasing, and this persists in maintaining below-Active fluence.