MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-02-20T01:13:40
High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) observed at GOES-16 is currently at Background levels. Any more persistent increase in flux is likely to be suppressed by a CME arrival on day 1 (20th). Some recovery towards Moderate levels is then likely after the onset of the CH77 HSS, later day 3 or during day 4 (21st or 22nd). There is a slight chance this may approach high levels by the end of the period.
The associated 24 hour fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold, with only a slight chance of rising above later in the period. REFM maintains below Active fluence, and this is likely to be a reasonable guide through the period.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2023-02-20T01:13:40 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 10% | 1% |