Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-02-19T12:20:41

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) observed at GOES-16 is currently at Background levels. Any more persistent increase in flux is likely to be suppressed by a CME arrivals either later day 1 or on day 2 (19th and 20th), although some recovery towards Moderate levels is then possible day 3 or day 4 (21st or 22nd). There is a slight chance this may approach high, however this is then likely to be suppressed further by any solar wind enhancement that occurs from the arrival of the high speed stream of CH77.

The associated 24 hour fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold, with only a slight chance of rising above later in the period. REFM maintains below Active fluence, and this is likely to be a reasonable guide through the period.