Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-02-18T00:44:00

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) observed at GOES-16 is currently at background levels, however the recent fast wind enhancement, along with CME arrivals on previous days, has likely increased count rates at lower orbits. As elevated solar winds decline these increased rates have the potential to expand towards GEO. However, any observed increase in flux is expected to become limited by the forecast CME arrival during Day 1 (18 Feb), with further CME or HSS effects possible through the following days. This could potentially result in a drop out of observed flux with any subsequent recovery difficult to predict at this stage. An increase in flux is possible later in the period, but with very low confidence.

The associated 24 hour fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold, with only a slight chance of rising above, mainly later in the period. REFM maintains below Active fluence, and this is likely to be a reasonable guide through the period.