Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-02-16T13:29:19

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) observed by GOES16 has been at background levels. The recent solar wind enhancement has likely resulted in an increased electron flux in the outer Van Allen Belt, however this may be short-lived, with a CME arrival forecast on day 2 (17th). This results in a very low confidence electron forecast.

Initially background flux has the potential to become Moderate, perhaps briefly High into day 2 (17th), before likely dropping out due to the CME arrival. A recovery in flux is then possible day 3 (18th) onward, with a chance of returning to High levels later in the period. The associated 24 hour electron fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) throughout, however the increased uncertainty with the flux forecast gives a slight chance of Active fluence, mainly day 3 (18th) onward. REFM doesn't capture the currently enhanced solar wind environment or the expected CME arrival on the 17th, so should only be used cautiously.