MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-02-15T12:20:04
The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux at GOES-16 started at moderate levels, but has now dropped to background due to ongoing CME effects. Whilst some flux increase is possible during Day 2 (16 Feb) after CME effects wane, a further CME is now expected on Day 3 (17 Feb), which is expected to suppress flux levels once again through to the end of the period.
The associated 24 hour fluence is now below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold on a downward trend. It is expected to stay below Active through the rest of the period. REFM is showing a below Active trend through the next three days, although it won't be taking account of CME effects.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2023-02-15T12:20:04 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |