Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-02-15T00:42:06

The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux at GOES-16 was initially at High levels, peak of 1390pfu at 14/0120UTC, but soon dropped to Moderate. Solar wind speeds have been mainly at background levels, with evidence of weak CME interaction both early and late on 14th. Wind speeds are likely to remain ambient or perhaps slightly elevated through this period, with any further significant charging unlikely. Therefore, flux levels are expected to gradually drop through the period.

The associated 24 hour fluence was just above the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) level, peak 1.41e8 integrated pfu at 14/0900UTC, but dropped below the Active threshold by 14/1800UTC, and continues on a downward trend at present. Observed values are now closer to REFM predictions, with the model forecast offering a plausible looking overall downward trend over the next 24 hours, although looks too low on days 3 and 4 (17th and 18th).