Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-02-14T00:11:56

The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux at GOES-16 was at Moderate to High levels, with a peak of 5450pfu at 13/1725UTC. Solar wind speeds have been mainly at background levels, although there is evidence of weak CME interaction at present. and there is the possibility of a further glancing CME from late on day 1 (14th). 

The associated 24 hour fluence has risen just above the Active level, and is now significantly above both REFM and recurrence predictions. There is uncertainty as to how significant these passing CME effects may be on the electron counts. However, considering the period as a whole, an overall decrease is expected, with fluence levels probably falling back below the Active threshold from day 2 (15th).