Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-02-13T00:14:37

The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux at GOES-16 is mainly at Moderate levels, but just peaked at High levels during the 12th. With wind speeds likely to decline in the near term, followed by the possibility of one or two CME arrivals, flux is most likely to return to largely background levels. There is some uncertainty if the CME arrivals don't occur, with flux levels perhaps just peaking at High levels and only slowly declining through the next few days.

The associated 24 hour fluence is most likely to remain below the Active level. This is supported by REFM, which is seems to be showing a reasonable trend, although it won't be taking account of any possible CME influence.