MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-02-11T13:09:20
The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux at GOES-16 is expected to continue at Background to Moderate levels with no further notable enhancement expected. Peak values are likely to gradually and erratically decline, and there is the potential to drop out to more persistent Background levels if any CME glance occurs through day 1, or day 4 (11th and 15th).
The associated 24 hour fluence is expected to remain below the Active level, despite the recent rising trend, with the recent observed value supported by REFM.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2023-02-11T13:09:20 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 5% | 1% |