Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-02-10T01:22:53

The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux at GOES-16 is expected to continue Moderate, with a chance of High on day 1 and perhaps day 2 (10th and 11th), but with a gradual declining trend towards background likely through the period. There is also a chance for periods of a more notable dropout in flux to occur on day 1 or day 2, due to any glancing CME influence. 

The associated 24 hour fluence is likely to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold, but does have a chance of rising above this level, mainly on days 1 and 2 (10th and 11th), before a more general decreasing trend is expected. This trend is supported by REFM, although the initial peak is too high, and the subsequent decline is likely occurring too soon.