Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-02-09T13:11:51

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) as observed by GOES16 is currently at Moderate to High levels as a result of the recent slight enhancement to the geospace environment from the arrival of the fast winds from CH74 and CH75. Similar conditions are expected for much of the period.

The associated 24hr fluence is likely to continue to generally rise, and the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) is expected to be reached during the next 24 hours. Met Office REFM output indicates the Active threshold will be reached later on Day 1, but with currently fluence values above this, it gives confidence for an earlier rise above the Active threshold. Beyond T+24 hours the model is less reliable due to its reliance on 27-day persistence which provides a poor comparison to recent conditions. However, in the absence of any significant geomagnetic activity, little change is probable with fluence levels remaining close to our just above the active threshold.