Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-02-08T13:22:44

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) as observed by GOES16 is currently mainly Moderate levels as a consequence of the recent slight enhancement to the geospace environment from the arrival of the fast wind from CH74 and CH75. This will bring a chance of reaching high at times, before falling again to mainly background levels by day 4 (11th).  

The associated 24 hr fluence is likely to continue to rise, but staying below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu). REFM is now indicating a clear rising trend, and giving good guidance at least until T+24. Beyond this period the model is less reliable due to its reliance on 27-day persistence which provides a poor comparison to recent conditions.