Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-02-06T13:29:09

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) as observed by GOES16 is currently at Normal Background levels, and is expected to remain so in the near-term. However, an eventual increase to Moderate and perhaps High levels is likely from midweek UTC in a response to the current coronal hole fast wind environment. STEREO A is currently giving very noisy traces for solar wind speed arising from CH74/- and CH75/- of between 500 and 750km/s, however something nearer the bottom end of this range is considered most likely, which would perhaps give an eventual Chance of fluence exceeding Active.

MOSWOC REFM is rendered less useful for this forecast period as the solar wind enhancement is both non-persistent and potentially polluted by minor transient activity later this working week.