Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-02-04T12:43:23

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) as observed by GOES16 is currently at mostly Normal Background levels, and is expected to remain so in the near-term due to the lack of suitable external influence.

Beyond the current UTC weekend, MOSWOC REFM is rendered less useful for this forecast period given the initial vestigial CME influence and then the reliance of of the forecast on a non-persistent fast wind, where even the polarity of the driving feature now appears less clear-cut.

Overall, uncertainty in the geomagnetic forecast carries over into the electron outlook, with the chances of exceeding Active 24-hour fluence greatest at the very end of the coming four days in the possible wake of the peak of the anticipated fast wind.