Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-02-04T00:19:29

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) as observed by GOES-16 is currently at normal background to Moderate levels, and is expected to remain so throughout much of Day 1 (04 Feb) due to waning effects of the CME arrival on 03 Feb. There is reasonable confidence in this.

A slight recovery is possible later on Day 1 into Day 2 (04-05 Feb). However, uncertainty with the arrival time of a HSS complicates the forecast during this period (see Geomagnetic Storms section). The HSS is expected to suppress flux levels once again by Day 2 or Day 3 (05-06 Feb) and for the remainder of the forecast period.

Electron fluence is expected to remain well below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold. A slight rise is possible on Day 2, with this trend supported by MOSWOC REFM, which is forecasting a steady trend well below Active. Recurrence would suggest fluence values will see a marked increase (yet remain below Active) during Day 2. However, since CH74/- is a larger and more defined feature on this rotation, the associated HSS is expected to disrupt electron fields more than on the previous rotation with suppressing effects lasting until the end of the period.