Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-02-02T13:20:27

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) as observed by GOES-16 is expected to oscillate between moderate and background levels through the next four days, with only a very slight chance of rising to high on day 2 and day 3 (3rd and 4th) as solar winds ease. Although any periods of geomagnetic activity may act to suppress these values further.

Electron fluence is at low levels with any rise over the next four days expected to be modest, and remaining below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold. This is supported by REFM, although this is of limited value as this has yet to account for current solar wind enhancement.