Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-01-31T12:37:26

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to oscillate between Moderate and High levels after an initial suppression due to geomagnetic activity from CH72/-. A new stable oscillation ought to become apparent through day two, Wednesday 01 February, continuing for the remainder of the next four days (in the absence of any CME activity).

24-hour electron fluence is likely to follow an upward trend during the first half of the period, with a slight chance of reaching the threshold on 01 February, probably saturating thereafter in a steady state - again assuming no transient activity. MOSWOC REFM persists in maintaining a flat trend around an order of magnitude below the Active threshold, which may slightly understate the fluence.