Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-01-30T12:35:39

High energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) is currently varying diurnally between Normal Background and Moderate levels. A degree of upward reaction is considered possible before midweek in response to the fast wind from CH71/+, however this is felt unlikely to be of sufficient magnitude to trouble the Active 24-hour integrated fluence threshold. Flux is currently around a order of magnitude lower than on last pass, and the latest run of MOSWOC REFM persists in a relatively flat 72-hour forecast trend, which is accepted given the fact the geomagnetic forecast exclusively comprises recurrent coronal holes and no transients.

A second upward response may follow any fast wind from CH72/- (or CH73/-), perhaps featuring at the very end of the coming four days, although only really becoming established to end the current working week. Ideas as to the extent to which this occurs are uncertain because of the recent earlier and larger magnitude than expected fast wind enhancement at STEREO A - confidence should improve in around 24 hours' time when the cause will be clearer (and possibly showing at L1).