Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-01-30T00:41:11

High energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) is currently varying diurnally between background and moderate levels. This may show an increase as the HSS influence wanes and the radiation belts de-compress, although the level of any increase depends on how much charging has taken place during the current fast wind. The arrival of the next HSS later in the period is expected to suppress flux levels, although the timing of this arrival is low confidence (see geomagnetic storm section).

The associated 24 hour fluence may also show an increasing trend over the next couple of days with moderate confidence. REFM shows fluence staying below the Active threshold throughout the period, which seems reasonable. However, fluence did reach above Active on the previous rotation, but electron flux was higher at the equivalent of this point in time previously so levels are expected to be correspondingly lower this time around. A decrease is then possible towards the end of the period as the next HSS arrives.