Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-01-29T00:11:22

High energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) is currently varying diurnally between background and moderate levels. This is likely to show an increase as the HSS influence wanes and the radiation belts de-compress, although the level of any increase depends on how much charging has taken place during the current fast wind. 

The associated 24 hour fluence is likely to show an increasing trend over the next couple of days with moderate confidence. There is a slight chance of reaching the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold, although this is low confidence. REFM is currently forecasting an increase below Active up to Day 2 (30 Jan) which seems reasonable. Fluence did reach above Active on the previous rotation, but electron flux was higher at the equivalent of this point in time previously so levels are expected to be correspondingly lower this time around.