Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-01-26T12:11:07

High energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) is expected to persist at Background to Moderate levels at first, before likely dropping out for a time later day 1 (26th) as Earth moves into the fast wind from CH69. As the outer Van Allen Belt recovers to GEO, flux levels are likely to return to Moderate levels, with a chance of reaching High, mainly during peak periods of the diurnal cycle. This is low confidence however, with a chance of further suppression in values on day 3 due to the arrival of CH70 fast winds.

The associated 24 hour fluence is forecast to stay below the Active threshold throughout, but with a slight chance of rising above through the period. This is supported by REFM which indicated a general flat trend throughout, however this doesn't take account of the expected solar wind enhancement forecast for day 1 (26th), so is unreliable beyond this.