Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-01-25T12:34:35

Electron flux should initially remain at Normal Background to Moderate levels, as per its current diurnal oscillation.

The chances of geomagnetic activity before Day 2 (26th) are very low. The electron flux has not shown any willingness to rise beyond its current level even in this absence of geomagnetic activity, and the current observations probably represent a near-steady state.

Any electron response will probably arrive towards the end of the current working week between any fast winds from CH69/+ and CH71/+, however this is now judged as a low-end chance, and even this ought to be brief should it occur.

MOSWOC REFM is not considered particularly useful guidance at present given the relative dominance of non-persistent features in the forecast, however it suggests levels below Active throughout the period.