Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-01-24T12:33:36

Electron flux should remain at Normal Background to Moderate levels, as per its current diurnal oscillation.

The chances of geomagnetic activity before midweek are now reduced, but the electron flux has not shown any willingness to rise beyond its current level even in this absence of activity, and the current observations probably represent a near-steady state.

The chances of Active 24-hour integrated electron fluence are now considered lower than in previous guidance, with the expected fast wind from CH69/+ now looking later and more muted than expected. Any electron response will probably arrive by the end of the current working week between the fast winds from CH69 and 71, however this is now judged as a low-end Chance, and even this ought to be brief should it occur.

MOSWOC REFM is not considered particularly useful guidance at present given the relative dominance of non-persistent features in the forecast, however it suggests levels below Active throughout the period.