Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-01-23T12:38:46

Electron flux should remain at Normal Background to Moderate levels, as per its current diurnal oscillation given expected geomagnetic activity from a number of low confidence transients.

The main risk to Active electron fluence being realised in the four days is the expected onset of CH69, which is mooted for 24 January. Because this is a newly-developed feature on this pass, confidence as to its effects and magnitude are both currently low, with the threat of CMEs early in the forecast also serving to reduce confidence further still. Of greater confidence is the fact that the latest available STEREO A MAG and PLASTIC data does suggest that any fast wind remains at least 24 hours away. The effects from the aforementioned fast wind should wane soon after midweek UTC, which ought to provide the peak risk of exceedence for the period as a whole, although this currently remains a Chance given the inherent uncertainties involved.

MOSWOC REFM is not considered particularly useful guidance at present given the relative dominance of non-persistent features in the forecast, however it suggests a steady trend below Active through the next 72 hours.