Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-01-22T13:17:39

High energy electron flux remains at background to moderate levels. Electron flux should remain at background to moderate levels, although, with a chance of rising to high during the diurnal peaks of Day 1 and 2 (22nd and 23rd). Possible CMEs on the 23rd and 24th may act to redistribute the electron fields, therefore reducing the risk of Active electron fluence, as will the onset of the HSS from CH69, expected on Day 3 (24th). By Day 4 (25th), as geomagnetic effects likely subside, there is an increasing chance of high electron flux occurring. 

Electron fluence is expected to stay below the Active threshold through the period. Perhaps a rising trend towards the end of the period, as HSS and CME effects begin to wane. The MOSWOC REFM model is considered as a good overall trend for the four day period.