Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-01-21T13:12:39

High energy electron flux remains at background to moderate levels. Electron flux should remain at background to moderate levels, although with a chance of rising to active during the diurnal peaks of days 2 and 3 (22nd and 23rd). Possible CMEs on 23rd may act to redistribute the electron fields, therefore reducing the risk into day 4 (24th).

Electron fluence is likely to stay below the Active threshold through the period, but with a slight chance of Active electron fluence on 22nd or 23rd in the wake of CH68/+ and before the possible arrival of 2 CME's on 23rd. The MOSWOC REFM model is considered as a good overall trend for the four day period, though individual data points are unlikely to be closely matched.