Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-01-20T00:36:24

High energy electron flux remains at background to moderate levels. The possibility of a HSS arrival on day 1 (20 Jan) may act to suppress flux even further. An increase is then possible later in the period, once any HSS effects have begun to wane. It is difficult to judge the likelihood of significant electron charging occurring during this period until we see the strength of any HSS, however, so confidence in this is low.

As such, electron fluence is likely to stay below the Active threshold for much of this period, but with an increasing trend into Day 4. MOSWOC REFM is showing a level trend through the next 3 days, which is reasonable.