Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-01-19T00:25:00

High energy electron flux has remained at background levels over the past 24 hours. The possibility of a glancing blow from a CME,  is likely to continue the suppression through Day 1 (19 Jan) with a further HSS possible on Day 2 (20 Jan). An increase is then likely later in the period, probably on Day 4 (22 Jan), once the CME and HSS have begun to wane. It is difficult to judge the likelihood of significant electron charging occurring during this period until we see the strength of any HSS, however, so confidence in this is low.

As such, electron fluence is likely to stay below the Active threshold for much of this period, but with an increasing trend into Day 4. MOSWOC REFM is showing a level trend through the next 3 days, which is reasonable.