Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-01-17T00:39:05

High energy electron flux is oscillating between normal background and Moderate levels as part of the normal diurnal variation. The recent fast wind from CH62/- and effects from the recent CME are continuing to tail off, but have yet to manifest in any increased magnitude oscillation. However it is more likely than not that it will elicit some form of upward reaction in the next couple of days. The degree to which this occurs will most likely prove insufficient for 24-hour Active fluence to be realised, given the modest duration and intensity of the fast wind.

Persistence methods are not considered useful in the period given the apparent lack of similarity of the current disc with last rotation, as well as the presence of CMEs, however REFM is in agreement in the persistence of a sub-Active trend. 

All considered, there is a slightly upward trend possible in flux and fluence in the immediate term, as recently seen, probably saturating within 24 hours before increased geomagnetic activity likely acts to temporarily suppress electron counts at GEO from later on Wednesday 18 January.