Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-01-15T12:41:00

High energy electron flux is oscillating between Normal Background and Moderate levels as part of the normal diurnal variation. The recent fast wind from CH62/- is now tailing off and has yet to manifest in any increased magnitude oscillation, however it is more likely than not that it will elicit some form of upward reaction into the new UTC working week. The degree to which this occurs will most likely prove insufficient for 24-hour Active fluence to be realised, given the modest duration and intensity of the fast wind, and the interruption from one and possibly two transients that may have served to redistribute electrons.

Persistence methods are not considered useful in the period given the lack of similarity of the current disc with last pass, as well as the presence of CMEs, however REFM is in agreement in the persistence of a sub-Active trend. 

All considered, there is a slightly upward trend possible in flux and fluence, but probably peaking by Tuesday 17 January at the latest and maintaining this level in the absence of any further CME influence.