Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-01-12T00:21:03

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) has been at background to moderate levels. Any rise in activity is expected to be modest, perhaps reaching Moderate levels at the diurnal peaks. Any glancing blow from a CME later on day 1 (12 Jan) could also keep electron flux levels suppressed.

Electron fluence is expected to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold through the period. Confidence in fluence remaining below Active through most of the period is high, but lower for the likelihood and timing of any possible increase due to the extent of any coronal hole influence.