Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-01-10T12:00:11

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) has been at background to moderate levels. Electron flux levels may rise a little in the next couple of days, but this is expected to be modest, perhaps reaching Moderate levels at the diurnal peaks. The onset of the next HSS from CH62 on Day 1 (10 Jan) is expected to cause a continued suppression of flux levels. This HSS is expected to be stronger than on previous rotation, with any electron response more likely to occur towards the end of this four day period - depending on any glancing blow from a CME on day 3 (12 Jan) which may keep electron flux levels suppressed.

Electron fluence is therefore expected to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold through the period. Confidence in fluence remaining below Active through most of the period is reasonable, but lower for the likelihood and timing of any increase especially towards the end of the period, due to the xtent of any coronal hole influence, and a possible glancing blow from a CME on the 12th Jan.