Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-01-09T12:26:01

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) has been at largely background levels. Electron flux levels may rise a little in the next couple of days, but this is expected to be modest, perhaps reaching Moderate levels at the diurnal peaks. The onset of the next HSS from CH62 either later on Day 1 or more likely during Day 2 (09-10 Jan) is expected to cause a continued suppression of flux levels. This HSS is expected to be stronger than on previous rotation, with any electron response more likely to occur towards the end of this four day period.

Electron fluence is therefore expected to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold for much of the period, but with a rising trend possible particularly into Day 4 (12 Jan). MOSWOC REFM is forecasting well below Active up to Day 3 (11 Jan), which is currently considered good guidance. Confidence in fluence remaining below Active through most of the period is reasonable, but lower for the likelihood and timing of any increase especially towards the end of the period.