Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-01-08T12:04:56

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) has been at largely background levels. Electron flux levels may start to rise in the coming days, but this is expected to be modest, perhaps reaching Moderate levels at the diurnal peaks. The onset of the next HSS from CH62 either later on Day 2 or more likely during Day 3 (09-10 Jan) is expected to cause a further suppression of flux levels. This HSS is expected to be stronger than the previous, but any electron response is more likely to occur after the end of this four day period.

Electron fluence is therefore expected to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold, perhaps on a slight rising trend. MOSWOC REFM is currently forecasting well below Active, which is considered good guidance. Confidence in fluence remaining below Active is reasonable, but lower for the timing of any increase especially towards the end of the period.