MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-01-06T13:14:30
High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) has been at background to moderate levels. Despite the apparent connection to a high speed stream from either CH60 or CH61, as the connection is relatively weak so the high energy flux levels are expected to remain at background to moderate levels. The corresponding electron fluence values are forecast to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) levels, despite an increasing trend. The Met Office REFM model is therefore considered to be offering good guidance.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2023-01-06T13:14:30 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 30% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 40% | 1% |