Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-01-05T13:22:53

Electron flux (greater than 2MeV) values have been at mainly background levels due to the recent impact and subsequent geomagnetic enhancements due to a CME arrival. The forecast connection to a coronal hole high speed stream is likely to further suppress electron flux values through 05 and 06 January. An increase is then likely through 07 and 08 January as geomagnetic activity subsides. Electron fluence is following a downward trend following recent geomagnetic activity. Electron fluence is not expected to now rise above the Active threshold during the period, with a slight increase in probabilities later in the period as geomagnetic activity decreases.