Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-01-04T12:12:07

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) began the period at high levels but has dropped to Background due to enhanced Geomagnetic activity associated with a likely CME passage. Broadly lower electron counts at GEO are anticipated to continue for a time ahead of the onset of further Geomagnetic activity associated with one or more CH HSS forecast to arrive either late 04 or early 05 January (Day 1 or 2). The timing of the onset of these features will determine when electron counts can rise again up to High levels, now more likely on Days 3 and 4 (6 and 7 January) when the electron belts are likely to rebound. 

Electron fluence is now expected to drop below the Active threshold on 04 January, given current trends in electron flux. There is lower confidence in the fluence forecast into 05 January, as the overall level will be dependent on the balance between the strength of the solar wind and the magnitude of any geomagnetic activity. Based on the lower than average confidence in the forecast potential effects of the coronal hole connections, the forecast gives a chance of rising again to/above the Active fluence threshold from Day 2 onwards.